How Russia Takes Over The World In One Sweeping Arc

It is a truism that in 2016 there are only three functionally sovereign countries on the planet: Russia, China, and the International Community. This despite there being more than 190 member states of the United Nations. But I digress.

One of these three sovereign countries is a common topic in dissident spheres for its brash leader and open rejection of Western progressive liberalism. Although China is stepping up purges to oust Western influence, it is Russia that has been the flag-carrier since Vladimir Putin took power. It was Russia that annexed Crimea with a world-class poker face. It was Russia that terminally complicated American efforts to destroy the Syrian Arab Republic. It is Russia that promulgates a state doctrine of ‘spiritual security.’

It is Russia that funds and fuels far right movements across Europe.

While all these things make Orthodox Russia a fascinating part of the news cycle, Russia’s destiny in the 21st century is far more momentous, and, like Russia itself, much harder to see without a satellite. With that in mind, let’s take a satellite’s view of Russia’s future and ask a question: what do Russian geopolitics look like in the next few hundred years?

What Sputnik can see is a Russian arc stretching from the Middle East to the West Coast of the United States. The arc of Russia begins in Jerusalem and ends in San Francisco, with a mid-point somewhere in frozen Siberia, deep within Russian borders.

Viewing Russia from Europe, Fritz or Francois can see an easily discernible West-East gradient that Russian armed forces need to traverse – or vice versa. The geopolitical logic of European Russia is the same logic that Napoleon and Hitler followed in reverse on their journeys to Moscow, and the logic that Stalin followed when he turned all of Eastern Europe into a protective buffer zone for the Russian heartland.

Viewing Russia from space, the West-East game of shifting buffer zones in European Russia is just a tiny part of Russia’s overall geopolitical picture. European Russia has three-quarters of Russia’s population but is just one fifth of the land area. European Russia is perched on the edges of Central Europe, Anatolia, and the Caucuses. The rest of Russia’s territory makes an arc around the top of Asia, snaking around Central Asia, China, Korea, and Japan. That same arc extends into Alaska and down the West Coast of North America.

arcmap

The Arc of Russia, stretching from Israel to Northern California.

Alaska used to be Alyaska, a possession of the Czar of All the Russias, and Russian frontier forts – kreposts – used to extend all the way down to the San Francisco Bay Area. The West Coast used to be called Russian America – up until 1867, two years after the end of the American Civil War. That was not a bizarre accident of history, but the inevitable result of Russian explorers and settlers reaching geography’s logical conclusion. Adjusting the parameters of Russian and American power in the early 19th century might have led to a 21st century city of Svyati Fransisko in the oblast of Kaliforniya.

As American power recedes alongside the self-inflicted implosion of Western civilization, there may yet be an oblast of Kaliforniya before 2100. That is, if the Chinese don’t get there first.

At the far western end of the arc of Russia, Russia’s biggest rival will be China. China has a headstart with an influential diaspora buying up and settling large parts of Vancouver and California, but China’s trans-Pacific growth is naturally limited by easily exploited perches in Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. These perches are occupied by or allied with the United States Navy at the moment, but as the USN returns to patrol the Gulf of America, a major incentive to take over Korea, Japan, and Taiwan will materialize for Russia. China’s expansion will be unchecked otherwise.

While the futures of the island of Taiwan and the Korean peninsula are up in the air – either Russia or China could plausibly bring them under control in the next century – the Japanese islands are almost certainly going to become part of Russia’s sphere of influence. Barring a military takeover of Japan, the best option for a powerful Russia in the near future will be to reduce an independent but shrinking Japanese population to vassal state status. Russian naval bases across Japan would be sufficient to redirect Chinese power South and away from the North Pacific and the Gulf of Alaska. Hawaii would be an excellent prize for the Russian Navy: a forward post overlooking the South Pacific. Coincidentally, the Russians used to have a fort on Hawaii.

Russian military men know and have known all this already, which is why in 1945 they occupied the island chain linking Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido to Kamchatka, and why to this day they refuse to return the islands to Japan. Russia does not give up such geopolitical prizes. Russian villagers sing ‘Kakalinka’ across from Hokkaido and the Kremlin likes it that way.

Although Russia and China are tentative allies in the defense of inland Asia against American naval power, it is written in the stars that China will be Russia’s main competitor in the race for power in the North Pacific and the West Coast of North America. In this struggle, Japan will be Russia’s victory prize. If Russia can take Japan, Russia will secure the Eastern end of its transcontinental arc.

At the other end of the arc of Russia, a similar dynamic emerges, but with different players.

Much like Russia will compete with China in the East, Russia will compete for influence in the West. The major difference is that, in the West, Russia will have a choice of paths to take based on its three largest competitors: Poland, Turkey, and Iran.

I have previously discussed why Russia’s major competitor in Europe will be Poland, or, to be more accurate, a metaphorical-geopolitical Poland that is actually a Central European power centered around the Visegrad Four – Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. Austria may even eventually join this group. This Greater Mitteleuropa will compete with Russia for power over Scandinavia, the Baltic States, Ukraine, the Balkans, and the Black Sea.

Immediately to the southeast of this new European power lies a resurgent neo-Ottoman Turkey. This New Turkey took a predictable and significant step towards Imperium just last week with a failed coup justifying greater central power. As the 21st century drags on, the New Turkey will only become more confident in its expansion. It will form one edge of a competitive geopolitical triangle around the Balkans and the Black Sea including Poland and Russia. It will form one edge of another triangle around the Caucuses, the Caspian Sea, and Central Asia, including Russia and Iran.

These same three players will compete in another area: the Levant. The area comprising Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan is important to all three. To Turkey, this area represents the first ring of old Ottoman colonies.

To Russia, the area is Russia’s potential stronghold in the Mediterranean, as well as the way to control the Suez Canal, one of the two most important waterways on the planet. Much like, at the peak of Imperial Russian power in the 19th century, Russians extended their influence to California, Russia was an important player in the Eastern Question of the 19th century that dealt with the privileges and rights of European powers in the collapsing Ottoman Empire — which stretched way past the Levant and Palestine at the time.

To Iran, the area is worth everything it is worth to Turkey and Russia, since the loss of the Levant threatens Mesopotamia, and the loss of Mesopotamia would threaten the Persian homeland like happened in the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.

The linchpin of designs on the area for all three powers is a historical anomaly: the State of Israel. Israel is the most powerful state in the region besides the Big Three. Furthermore, it maintains de facto control over the Suez Canal: as evidenced by wars with Egypt in 1948, 1956, 1967, and 1973, the Israelis are perfectly capable of overrunning the Sinai at will and reaching the canal, kept in check only by Arabist factions within the Anglo-American governments that demand Egyptian territorial integrity. Alliance or occupation of Israel by a competent military would mean control over the Suez Canal, the Sinai, and the Levant.

While both Iran and Turkey attempt to insert themselves into Israel’s geographical position – Iran by funding Hamas and Hezbollah in Palestine and Lebanon, and Turkey by trying to oust Bashar Al-Assad in Syria through proxies like ISIS – it is Russia that, through a stroke of breathtaking historical luck, finds itself best placed to extend control over the ancient lands of the Old Testament.

Over 20% of Israelis are fluent in Russian. The former Soviet Union is the single largest ancestral location for Israeli Jews, five times greater than the second largest location, Poland. These Russian Jews have been at the forefront of Israel’s transformation from a revolutionary left-wing, socialist, cosmopolitan state centered around coastal Tel Aviv and dependent on aid and arms flowing through the Mediterranean from the West, to a religious, right-wing state centered around surrounded, inland Jerusalem, led by the ideological descendants of nationalist Jewish terrorists and militiamen.

There is a genetic and historical link between Russia and Israel comparable to the link between Anatolian Turks or Iran’s Persians with Palestinian Arabs. It is Russia’s good luck that the valuable territory of Palestine is already occupied by its militarily supreme cousins.

The Polish-Russian-Turkish triangle will cause an endless epic of backstabbings, broken alliances, and shifting borders. The Turkish-Russian-Iranian triangle will cause the same. But that will only be because Russia’s forward post in the Land of Israel will allow it to maintain the geopolitical high ground and play Turkey and Iran off each other at will.

In the struggle at the Western end of the arc of Russia, Israel is the Russian victory prize. If Russia can bring Israel into its sphere of influence, Russia will have no trouble countering Turkish and Iranian advances, and will therefore avoid a permanent alliance between the three against Russia, and instead hold all three hostage in an advantageous stalemate with Russia calling the shots.

Russian alliances with Turkey, Iran, and Poland would all be built on quicksand due to overlapping geopolitical interests, but a Russian alliance with Israel is a masterstroke for both that keeps mutual enemies divided and isolated. Israel need only complete the transition from a cosmopolitan left-wing mega-kibbutz to an authoritarian Eastern European state in the Middle East. Benjamin Netanyahu is on the task.

In the long-term, geography will dictate that Russia attempt taking over Turkey. Turkey is the power equidistant between Iran and Poland, as well as the power dividing Russia from its future Israeli perch. Turkey is a major power and the task could not be taken lightly, but it is conquest of Anatolia that would cement Russian power from Germany to India. It is not a simple goal, but the retaking of Constantinople is Russia’s geopolitical destiny.

Geography dictates that the Third Rome reconquer the Second.

Russia may not fully secure the Western and Eastern ends of its arc until the year 2500, but the contours that are visible are impossible to ignore. On a timescale of a few years to a few decades, we can easily see that Russia’s projects will be in Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and the Caucuses. Increase that timescale, and the future of Russian power lies everywhere from Jerusalem to San Francisco.

Or, put differently, from Palestina to Kaliforniya. Almost sounds like a slogan, doesn’t it? From Palestina to Kaliforniya, and eventually to Tsargrad – which would be the old Slavic name for Constantinople.

At that point, the only two sovereign countries left on the planet might be China and the Mezhdunarodnoye Soobshchestvo. International community, that is.

Mark Yuray is verified on Gab. Follow him there and on Twitter.

Liked it? Take a second to support Social Matter on Patreon!
View All

18 Comments

  1. Thanks to the Chinese, the average price of a detached house, in Vancouver, Canada is 2.1 million dollars. Seattle is not too far behind. The Chinese are displacing locals and have established a huge beach head. They are a real and growing threat. Russia needs to circle it’s wagons and defend itself against American encroachments as China and America eventually confront each other.

  2. What follows is going to be pretty critical, so I’ll start with some points of agreement: I do think NATO will be dissolved, de facto if not de jure within two decades or so and that the United States will be withdrawing to its own hemisphere and leaving the rest of the world to its fate. I think Western Europe will be unwilling to defend itself and that some speculation about what the resulting world will look like is fine. But this analysis is pretty seriously flawed.

    First off, there’s two words missing here. Those two words are “nuclear weapons”. As the United States departs and takes its nuclear shield with it, all sorts of mid-sized powers will respond by getting nuclear weapons for themselves: Turkey, Korea, Japan, and more. Why does this matter? Because nukes negate Asabiyyah. It doesn’t matter how much of an Asabiyyah advantage Holy Orthodox Russia has over those decadent, low-testosterone, anime porn addict Japanese, as long as Japan has nukes and just a few Japanese somewhere can summon up enough samurai spirit as the Russian troops start landing just to push the damn button that launches the missiles. And as documented variously throughout the reactosphere, Japan even now is not without some legitimately Rightist elements, which is probably enough for that.

    Next, Turkey. This article does concede that a Russian conquest of Turkey could not be taken lightly. But that’s still a massive understatement. Turkey is more religious, more patriotic, has more warrior spirit and more Asabiyyah generally than Russia. Turks would fight to the death against invasion and even if conquered on paper would bleed Russia dry in terrorism and irregular warfare. The Soviet Union couldn’t even hold Afghanistan, and Turkey would be an order of magnitude harder.

    Finally, let’s put aside the practicality of Russia conquering places like Japan, Hawaii, the West Coast, and the eastern Mediterranean and filling them with navy bases and ask what that would say about Russia. It would mean that Russia is not a land power but a sea power. Such a Russia would not be traditionalist, conservative, Holy Orthodox Russia. A sea power Russia would be progressive, cosmopolitan, and multicultural — just like every sea power that has ever existed in human history. Assuming a civilization with a deeply entrenched land power mentality — the example par excellence of land power really — can be converted to a sea power at all, why would Russia even want that?

    1. ” The Soviet Union couldn’t even hold Afghanistan, and Turkey would be an order of magnitude harder.”

      The difference is that Afghanistan at the time of the Soviet Invasion had an average birth rate of 7 children per female and not even 3% of the population were over 65. With this demographic you can fuel way more blood into the conflicts then the soviets with their 2 children in average. In Turkey now they have 1,4 children per female and the kurds have 4 children. Erdogan acts so aggressive cause he knows the time is running short.

      But should NATO kick turkey out and should russia roll in by proxy, turkey would be another wartorn theater that draws in islamic fighters from all over the region. Turkey will cease to exist this way or another.

    2. I agree that mid level powers will try to acquire their own nukes immediately following NATO’s dissolution. However, you forget that nukes alone are useless. Delivery systems are actually harder to develop. Iran’s been spending decades of engineering hours on it and it barely has a working delivery capacity. Once NATO dissolves, Russia will basically resume its millennial project of dominating Eastern Mediterranean — which was only delayed due to Anglo Empires actively stopping it. This implies conquering Constantinople, Thrace, Morea, and Asia Minor. To defend, Turkey and Iran will have a very narrow window of opportunity to build significant nuclear striking capacity.

      Another crucial thing to note is that once the International Community starts retreating, there will be a paradigm shift in rules of engagement. To put it bluntly, genocides might make a comeback in the absence (or weakness) of a zealously anti-genocide theocratic superpower . Guerrilla warfare is only effective because state forces are forced to fight with their hands tied to their feet. Drone armies, super-viruses, chemical warfare, tactical nukes… A motivated and competent commander unbound by the peculiarities of the religion of Progress could decimate or annihilate opposition in asymmetrical warfare. I imagine subjects will quickly learn to submit and behave once they understand that they’re at the mercy of an enemy that has Fnargl-like powers.

  3. Rereading Notes From [the] Underground. Intense. The protagonist is a very western guy. I’ve met many versions of him, here in the realm of Sea Power.

  4. SwaglordTrump July 19, 2016 at 5:21 pm

    Russia may gain ground in Belarus and Ukraine and Kazakhstan, but it’s a corrupt petrostate with a stagnant population. It doesn’t have many future prospects ahead of it.

  5. Laguna Beach Fogey July 19, 2016 at 8:55 pm

    As Americans are preoccupied with violent Afticans and Muslims, the Chinese are quietly colonizing the country. I’m seeing it first hand in nearby cities.

  6. The Slaws tried to profit from western crises and conquer in the shadow of other threat since the Elbe Slavs settled in the tracks of the hunnic horde.
    Russia will never “rule” anything or therefor shape and cultural, technological or other developments, cause it can’t do shit. Russia is a basket case and untill their foolish engagement in the Syrian Civil war just a regional Power. Can you name any russian products? It has the exports of an 3rd world country.
    And just because many russians are white and some sort of christian doesn’t make them like me. Americans in the AltRight fetishize russia cause they don’t know russians and they don’t know russia. Russia is in many ways way more like africa then even eastern europe. Third rome and other Dugin Phantasies are pipedreams.

    1. >Can you name any russian products
      AK. T34, katyusha, Su-30, MIG etc.

      Judging by your writing style, you’re from the butthurt belt of Europe, right?

  7. This is truly astounding in its geopolitical complexity and depth, but may be a little too grandiose. I don’t see the resources for such ploys being ‘there’ at the moment. Russia is pretty stretched doing what it does right now, which is working surprisingly well.

    I definitely agree on a Russo-Japanese maneuver as America (perhaps Trump’s America?) withdraws from the eastern pacific, but its success may not be ensured, as the Japanese for the most part (around 70%) dislike Russians. Now, the number for Chinese is probably close to 96%, but the difference isn’t something to brag about. But if Japan does not ally with somebody, it will disappear and become part of ‘was always China’. There is no military contest between Japan and China whatsoever, same for South Korea and the Philippines.

    The Turkish thing is kind of confusing. Dugin at least seems to think that the coup is very positive for Russia because its results are likely to tip Turkey away from EU/NATO/USG, but this is not without risks. Turkey will likely feel more free to antagonize the situation in the Middle East in its ongoing feud with Iran. One thing is for sure, Saudi Arabia is done for. They will not be a power in the coming decades, and nor will Egypt. The day of the Arabs in the world of Islam is coming to a close once again, and the Persians and Turks take center stage once more atop the ruins of a thousand military juntas, warlords, and crypto-caliphs.

    I read a really interesting article on Poland recently:

    http://original.antiwar.com/adriel_kasonta/2016/07/06/taking-war-warsaw/

    Pointing out that Poland’s fears of Russia are largely paranoia. Even Russian neo-Imperialists do not consider Poland to be Russkiy Mir. Ukraine, Belarus, and Transnistria are integral Russian territories, but Poland (especially the lands that currently comprise Poland, most of which seem to be historically German) is not. When France and these other decrepit nations implode, spilling chaos and refugees everywhere, Poland may not have time to be worrying about its eastern front, and might instead want to ensure it doesn’t get culturally enriched tsunami style.

    And when the EU disappears, I would suspect Greece, Serbia, and Bulgaria for sure to join some kind of Russian customs agreement and move back into that sphere. Difficult to say where Romania lands in all of this, it’s something of a wild card.

    At least in the short term (this century) Russia’s territorial ambitions end probably somewhere at Ukraine’s western edge. Its geopolitical ambitions are of course greater, but will be made up of trade deals and defense treaties.

    We can say with certainty that a Trump presidency is significant for geostrategic goals in Moscow

    http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/07/clinton-trump-putin-nato/492332/

    As the Atlantic writes in the usual pearl-clutching libtard prose:

    “Republican Party foreign policy, to date, has been fairly clear on a number of subjects: The United States, Republican foreign-policy thinkers have argued, should help to expand the number of free countries in the world; they believe that the U.S. should come to the defense of free peoples whether or not those peoples can, or will, reimburse the United States for expenditures in pursuit of freedom; that Europe represents the stable platform from which the United States projects its power, and ideas, into the world; that Russian imperial dreams should be countered in a robust fashion by the U.S. and its allies; and that the withdrawal of the U.S. from three key regions of the world—East Asia, Europe, and the Middle East—would create vacuums soon filled by non-democratic regimes that would operate counter to U.S. national-security interests.

    Donald Trump, should he be elected president, would bring an end to the postwar international order, and liberate dictators, first and foremost his ally Vladimir Putin, to advance their own interests. The moral arc of the universe is long, and, if Trump is elected, it will bend in the direction of despotism and darkness.”

    ‘despotism and darkness’ – otherwise known as the World of Tradition. It’s going to be a fun century to watch, make no mistake.

  8. Russia is dying. It may be terminal as Sweden, Germany, France and probably the USA are but its mortal wound is self inflicted, not do to racial replacement by low IQ browns and blacks.
    Please read the following site and listed links:
    https://alfinnextlevel.wordpress.com/2016/07/23/mexico-and-russia-in-virtual-dead-heat-in-imf-gdp-rankings/

    Dan Kurt

    1. >muh gdp
      according to this chart, everyone is *dying*

  9. This is a fun piece of theory, but ultimately I think it remains just that. Russia has been fetishized simply because Putin is a ballsy sort and has a solid grip on the Russian state, but Russia is not a superpower. As someone has already mentioned, they would have to get more boats- enough boats to solidly whip the Japanese, South Korean, and US navies, none of which are pushovers. China is, at least, in my opinion, the far more interesting state because it actually has the kind of manpower to confront a military like the United States possesses. I think the alt right and neoreaction has willfully ignored the incredible nature of US potential power in the wake of a legitimate, serious threat to territorial integrity. Even though America has serious declined since his statement was made, Yamamoto is correct. In the days after 9/11- a relatively minor attack compared to all-out war with China- warring internal factions were able to shake hands and look outwards for a moment. If Trump wins in November and can establish a prosperous rightish authoritarian America that is more or less unified, I shudder at the responsibility that would be placed on the shoulders of Chinese high command.
    It might be the koolaid, but it seems to me like an America with sufficient motivation to be sovereign and need to be strong again is a truly fearsome thing indeed. If not on land, in the air or at sea.
    America is not falling to China before 2050, at least.

  10. To all doubters above:

    People have been calling Russia a corrupt and mismanaged petrostate that couldn’t wipe its own behind for literally the last 20 years, non-stop. Then that corrupt and mismanaged petrostate that couldn’t wipe its own behind annexed Crimea, weathered sanctions, kicked USG out of Syria, and is about to defeat ISIS.

    But instead of updating their model of Russia, the same people are still calling it a corrupt and mismanaged petrostate that can’t wipe its own behind. I suspect this is not because Russia is a corrupt and mismanaged petrostate that can’t wipe its own behind, but because Russia is quickly becoming a very well-managed and powerful state that applies force intelligently, stealthily, and cleverly to a degree that is orders of magnitude above any other power’s capabilities, save for perhaps Mossad.

    I think Russia is going to become very powerful as USG collapses into its own self-imposed black hole of stupidity and dildos, and that power is going to increase regardless of problems with the nominal GDP or nominal birth rates. Russia’s power depends on its military and security service, and those are not going to suffer notably from its economic or demographic problems. And I think that the same people saying Russia is a corrupt and mismanaged petrostate that can’t wipe its own behind are going to be saying that exact same thing when Russia is occupying the San Francisco Bay Area.

    Reposted my comment from reddit.com/r/nrxn

    1. I much prefer your bright and shining side of the coin to the doom and gloom side of that very same coin. I only hope Putin is acutely aware of the fact that (((neo-cons))) are capable of great treachery, especially on a sinking ship.

    2. Short to mid term, Chin is where its at and any nation concerned about its future would do well to pay careful attention to that nation

      I suspect I’m not as sanguine about Al-Fins prognosis in Russia as Dan Kurt is but I a basically agree with him. The Russian TFR is 1.5 or so, better than Germany and marginally below that of the US or Sweden (White Swedes here)

      They have been able to increase life expectancy a lot and unlike other nations the TFR a tiny bit, they are not at 2.2 or more where they’d have to be to occupy anything.

      Until people have babies, no one will be occupying much of anything in the long run No manpower for the task.

      Heck Russia can’t occupy and control Siberia and while its an icebox its also resource rich and strategically important

      In fact if the current situations continues for a few decades, instead of turf wars you get roll-backs. Much as parts of Germany and villages in Japan are becoming depopulated now you may see a abandonment of many areas.

      Cities surrounded by empty space and wilderness even in highly developed nations. Its not especially exciting to contemplate but its seems a lot more likely to me than some greater Russian empire

      1. current russian fertility rate is around 1.8

  11. @Tren bolone
    Shitloads of that 1.8 are muslims from within the federation or migrants from the -stans

Comments are closed.