Eastern European Underperformance And The Ministry Of Repatriation

The Pareto principle says that, generally speaking, 80% of any given results will come from only 20% of any given causes. As the original 19th century examples go, 80% of the land in Italy was controlled by 20% of the people, and 20% of Pareto’s peapods contained 80% of the peas. I can think of a few more contemporary examples: 20% of start-ups generate 80% of start-up wealth, 20% of your effort in the gym will provide 80% of your results, or – as Woody Allen says – “Showing up is 80% of life.” In fact, just showing up is probably far less than 20% of the effort you’ll expend on something. Pareto strikes again.

There are 3.8 million ethnic Croats who live in Croatia and 500,000 who live in Bosnia. Up to 350,000 Croats live in Germany, 150,000 in Austria, 40,000 in Switzerland, 350,000 in Sweden–I’ll stop there. There are up to 1.2 million people of Croatian descent in the United States. About 650,000 in South America. In Australia, 250,000. We could add up the whole list of numbers and get a figure of about 3 million Croats living outside of Croatia and Bosnia, but let’s be conservative and just add up the low estimates, and try to ignore some of the more distant emigrants who may not be very culturally Croatian anymore. Ignoring the United States and Latin America (the older 19th century emigration destinations), we get a figure of about 1 million Croats who recently emigrated abroad. To put it in dates, about 1 million who left the ancestral homelands in the Balkans since the 1960s.

These 1 million emigrants make up 20.8% of the worldwide population of Croats. A familiar number, no? What is the economic productivity of Croats worldwide, both in the Balkans and abroad? No one has collected this figure to my knowledge. We do know that the GDPs of Croatia and Bosnia proper are pretty low, though. I am no blind worshiper of GDP, but it should be a passable proxy for the purposes of this line of thought. Coincidentally, Croats in Croatia and Bosnia have a powerful inferiority complex about their status and productivity relative to the West.

There are 37 million Poles living in Poland. There are 10 million people of Polish descent in the United States. 3 million in Brazil, 3 million in Germany, etc.

If we add up the populations of Poles abroad in countries that Poles only recently emigrated to, we get about 6.5 million. According to the 2000 US Census, about 650,000 Americans reported speaking Polish at home. We can assume the number has declined a bit, so let’s say 600,000 Polish Poles in America. The total of recently emigrated Poles then comes out to 7.1 million. That emigrant population is 16.1% of the worldwide population of Poles. We could round 16.1% up to 20.0% if we chose to, could we not? Coincidentally, Poles also have something of an inferiority complex relative to the West. As far as I know, there is no data on the worldwide economic productivity of Poles (without regard to national borders). There is data on the GDP of Poland, however, and it’s not as flattering as the data about neighboring Germany’s GDP.

There are probably approximately 6 million recently-emigrated Russians living in the West. There are no figures on the number of Russian emigres (White Russians) who fled Russia for the West in the wake of the bloodshed of the 1917 Russian Revolution, but we know they were numerous (numerous enough to become a phenomenon) and that they were disproportionately aristocratic and high-functioning. The number of recently-emigrated Russians is only about 5% of the worldwide total of Russians, but add in the white emigres, and we may have a substantial loss of human capital. Russia, coincidentally, like Poland and Croatia, has something of a less-than-perfect economic, bureaucratic and educational system compared to the West, and Russians tend to know it.

Back to Croatia. We have no reason to think Pareto’s principle is going to be untrue when considering local and emigrant populations of a formerly unified nation. In that case, would it be presumptuous to say that the Croatian homeland is underperforming economically, socially, politically, scientifically and culturally by 80% due to the loss of the 20.8% of its best co-ethnics to the West? We would have to have reason to believe that the 20.8% of Croatian emigrants were from the right end of the human capital bell curve, and not the left or randomly distributed across it.

Croatian emigrants were, generally speaking, more right-wing, more religious, more credentialed, more educated and more enterprising from the 1960s to the 1990s, during the time of Tito’s Yugoslavia. The Communist government was not fond of right-wing Bible-thumpers and happily let them run off abroad. Nor are communists are known for their strong work ethic. Whether this means anti-Communists are more likely to have a strong work ethic and other praiseworthy qualities is an open question. More qualified, intelligent, and credentialed Croats found places in the West, and were more likely to stay as a result.

To this day, I would imagine most Croats leaving Croatia and Bosnia are the better ones in terms of IQ, work ethic, good ideas, virtue, entrepreneurship, creativity and so forth. Without those positive qualities, they wouldn’t have a way to make a living abroad. This is the general perception among all Croats I have ever spoken to. Anecdotally, 100% of the Croats I know in the West are upper-middle class, well-earning, virtuous, leader-like citizens of their adopted countries.

Mate Rimac, the “Croatian Elon Musk,” is developing his ground-breaking electric cars in Croatia proper, but, according to himself, to great difficulty. Apparently it takes an Elon Musk to run a new business in Croatia. The task is not meant for mere mortals, it appears.

Is the situation the same in Poland and Russia? Pavel Durov, the Russian Mark Zuckerberg, left Russia in 2014 and vowed never to come back. “[Russia] is incompatible with Internet business at the moment.” It’s unlikely that you will be able to recall any names of famous Polish people (unless you happen to be Polish); I can however direct you to Zbigniew Brzezinski, who by now possesses quite a reputation as a political scientist and geostrategist. He is Polish-American, though, mind you. Luke Nosek was born in a small Polish village, but he co-founded PayPal in California. If you ever visit the graduate faculties of major western universities, you will probably be inundated with funny Slavic names and Eastern European accents.

I am not describing a new phenomenon: “brain drain” is well-known and nearing the point of cliché. Few people, however, have studied the history and fully grasped the magnitude of brain drain from Eastern Europe. Apple has 115,000 employees. If they lose Steve Jobs, they only lose 0.0008% of their employees, but potentially up to 100% of their future value, productivity, and creativity. If they lose one sweatshop worker in China, they lose 0.0008% of their employees, and probably about 0.0008% of their future value. If one Steve Jobs emigrates from your country, your country will not lose the life-time value of an average local, but a life-time value that is several orders of magnitude higher than the average, as well as an uncountable prize of glory, pride, culture, tourism, and admiration. If your country loses all of its Steve Jobs’, then the next 20% of the right end of the capability and virtue bell curve, your country will lose far more than 20% of its possible quality and value.

In fact, going by Pareto, it is more like a staggering 80%. If it’s 15% of the best people lost, then it’s 60% of possible value. Even if only 5-10%, this corresponds to 20-40%, enough to savagely cripple a country in historical terms. If this is what’s happened to Eastern Europe, it would explain why Eastern Europeans have an inferiority complex relative to Western Europe that is comically outsized when compared to historical attitudes and current realities.

The unemployment rates in many Eastern European countries are mind-boggling. Above 40% in Bosnia and Herzegovina. About 25% in Greece. In many countries (Russia, Macedonia, Croatia, Ukraine), only slightly more than half of the population is employed. Lots of breath is wasted east of Vienna figuring out ways to increase employment, increase wages, improve education – basically how to become more like the West. The solutions tend to be reminiscent of Cargo Cults.

Instead of implementing the positive aspects of Western society (for example, free enterprise, virtue, thrift, and start-up culture), they tend to implement the more negative ones (massive welfare states, too-holy-for-its-own-good progressivism). Nothing improves, and nobody is any wiser as to why.

Why the West even has room for all these non-Western immigrants is the apocalyptic flip-side of the Eastern European brain drain. There wouldn’t be open positions for Eastern European professors, engineers, entrepreneurs, etc. if the native Westerners weren’t failing to reproduce in large numbers. Brain drain not only destroys the functioning of the source country by sucking away the best people, but also represents a symptom of suicide of the recipient country. Healthy countries don’t need talent from abroad because they produce it themselves – but that doesn’t happen when your national fertility rate is below 1.5 (see: Germany).

If Eastern Europeans and their leaders are serious about improving Eastern European civilization, they have to give up the Cargo Cult of the West and either (a) supply a coordination mechanism that would allow large numbers of high quality emigrants to return to their homelands simultaneously (to prevent individual burn-out upon return) or (b) implement the hard and unpopular aspects of Western civilization and ignore the easy and popular ones. Since (b) is not definitely going to happen without a full-fledged restoration of effective government, it comes down to trying to set up a Ministry of Repatriation. Until then, improvement is a pipe dream and the immediate reality is going to remain mediocrity.

Mark Yuray is verified on Gab. Follow him there and on Twitter.

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24 Comments

  1. Ryan Carboni May 3, 2016 at 1:44 pm

    Well, Russia tolerates sci-hub at least, a step above the United States in a single area.

  2. The more that brain drain from Eastern Europe happens, the shittier that Eastern Europe becomes. For instance, IQs in Eastern Europe were always quite low, but I’ve no doubt that the fact of relentless brain drain goes a long to explaining why a country like Serbia has an IQ of 87, or why Poland will likely soon be at Serbia’s level IQ-wise if 2/3rds of its college graduates continue to emigrate to the West every year, as is now the case. The damage that is being done to the national IQs of these countries are translating into the socioeconomic decline of these already backwards countries. This feedback effect that is associated with brain drain makes any scheme for repatriating these high-achieving Eastern Europeans even more difficult as time goes on, as conditions continue to deteriorate in their home countries. Just take a step back and think about it: if you’re a high-achieving Greek living and working a high-status and remunerative job in the West, why in the world would you ever want to return to Greece?

    1. Pretty much. Source on 2/3 of Poland’s grads leaving? Not surprised, but curious.

      Also note the apocalyptic flip-side again: what does it say about Germany and the UK that they need hundreds of thousands of Poles to man their economies? Nothing good, for sure.

      1. >Source on 2/3 of Poland’s grads leaving? Not surprised, but curious.

        Just take a look at this article: http://www.ozy.com/provocateurs/the-man-who-says-poland-will-be-dead-by-2020/60638

        >Also note the apocalyptic flip-side again: what does it say about Germany and the UK that they need hundreds of thousands of Poles to man their economies?

        Yeah, the situation is pretty catastrophic.

        1. Poles go to Britain. Brits go to Australia. Australians kick out the boat people at gunpoint. Somebody has to stop passing the buck and begin enforcing no-entry laws against Third Worlders or the white immigrant musical chairs goes on forever.

  3. Poland and Hungary are tied for 16th in the world for average IQ, at 99, the same as Western European Spain. By way of comparison, the average IQ of the US (the destination for all these ostensibly highest-achieving immigrants) is 98– 1 point lower.

    True, the US average is probably dragged down by certain demographic groups not present in Poland or Hungary, but their average is also higher than France (98) or Finland (97)–the latter with its vaunted educational system (sarcasm) and homogenous population.

    Irving’s argument that Poland’s IQ will “soon” be on par with Serbia is inconsistent with the fact that Poles have already been emigrating for a long time–as Yuray points out, 16% of the total population. So the brain drain, if it exists, would not have “just started.”

    I think you’re underestimating the impact of the communist era on these economies–the obvious elephant in the room. Stable Eastern European countries (Poland, Hungary, Czeckia, the Baltic states) have rapidly been “catching up” to the West. If they were intellectually handicapped, they should be underperforming in terms of growth, not total GDP.

    I don’t disagree with your premise (basically “IQ shredders on an international scale”) in principal, I’m just skeptical that, in this particular case, the immigrants were in fact brighter than those who stayed.

    source: http://www.statisticbrain.com/countries-with-the-highest-lowest-average-iq/

    1. >Poland and Hungary are tied for 16th in the world for average IQ, at 99, the same as Western European Spain. By way of comparison, the average IQ of the US (the destination for all these ostensibly highest-achieving immigrants) is 98– 1 point lower.

      >True, the US average is probably dragged down by certain demographic groups not present in Poland or Hungary, but their average is also higher than France (98) or Finland (97)

      From what I’ve read, Lynn’s latest estimate for Polish IQ is in the mid 90s. The ones that put it in the higher 90s seem to be dated.

      In any case, just look at what you’re saying. It is obvious from all of the basic socioeconomic indicators that neither Hungary nor Poland nor Spain have 99 IQs.

      >Irving’s argument that Poland’s IQ will “soon” be on par with Serbia is inconsistent with the fact that Poles have already been emigrating for a long time

      The current rate of emigration from Poland, just in terms of the numbers of people leaving, seems unprecedented. Whatever the case may be, however, the brain drain that Poland is suffering is massive, and it is indisputable that the magnitude of this brain drain will shortly make itself evident in the form of significantly depressed national IQ.

      >I’m just skeptical that, in this particular case, the immigrants were in fact brighter than those who stayed

      Well, why is it then that the Eastern Europeans that one generally runs into in the West are, unlike most Eastern Europeans in Eastern Europe, smart, well-educated and wealthy?

      1. “In any case, just look at what you’re saying. It is obvious from all of the basic socioeconomic indicators that neither Hungary nor Poland nor Spain have 99 IQs. ”

        As Florian points out below, the statistics we should be using are economic growth and dynamism, not current GDP. By that logic, Poland and Hungary should have very high IQs, Germany should have a moderate one, and (granted) Spain’s should be abysmal.

        “The current rate of emigration from Poland, just in terms of the numbers of people leaving, seems unprecedented.”

        Poland had very high rates of emigration in the pre-Soviet period, and is already approaching the “20%” mark according to Yuray above. And yet other states–think Ireland, where more Irish live in the US alone than in their home country–had rates of immigration which make Poland’s seem insignificant. Does Ireland seem economically retarded? To the contrary its GDP/capita is higher than most of Europe, including Germany–and it is growing faster as well . (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?order=wbapi_data_value_2014+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=desc)

        “Well, why is it then that the Eastern Europeans that one generally runs into in the West are, unlike most Eastern Europeans in Eastern Europe, smart, well-educated and wealthy?”

        When you live in a wealthy country with a good educational system, you are more likely to turn out well-educated and wealthy. So even people with low IQs in the US are usually richer and more politically aware than high-IQ people in, say, Sub-Saharan Africa. Eastern Europe, still suffering from the effects (economic and social) of Communism, is not yet as good a place to “get ahead.”

        1. Economic growth depends on room to grow, and countries often rely on low value added industries (not requiring huge intellectual exertion). This would not seem a worthy index for relating intelligence (as cause) to economic performance (as effect), nor for doing so over and above GDP (either gross or per capita), since this latter just measures the result of past growth. Put differently: Germany’s economy grew, thusly is it larger than Poland’s. That Poland’s economy is now growing faster than Germany’s does not imply Poles have more of whatever faculty makes economies grow (IQ or whatever else).

          Economic dynamism is more interesting (taken apart from growth, that is, dynamism qua innovation). But Spain (checking up on your examples) ranks well ahead of either Poland or Hungary on the Global Innovation Index for 2015. No reason at all why its average IQ should be “abysmal” compared to these.

          None of this, however, matters all that much, in my view. We should attend to social cohesion. Even a room full of geniuses won’t necessarily get along to accomplish much as a unit, or want to be a unit in the first place (neither will a ramshackle conflagration of internally well cohered tribes that don’t get along with each other). High IQ correlates with delaying gratification, but not necessarily with being a team player or identifying with the team (especially if one can do well independently of that team).

          Economic performance might have everything to do with a country’s political will and capacity to negotiate its place (or niche) in the international system, and such depends on political stability (consistent strategies pursued across electoral terms), in turn depending on social cohesion (the team). This approach is more politco-historical analysis, less index crunching.

          So, to return to the prior examples, Poland and Hungary seem to enjoy a strong consensus generalis, judging from the governments they’ve recently elected, whereas Spain (though having a larger economy and GDP per capita than both, and innovating more than either) is an invertebrate society, per Ortega y Gasset’s diagnosis (politically invertebrate, though it functions socially, having lower murder rates than most of Europe).

    2. “I don’t disagree with your premise (basically “IQ shredders on an international scale”) in principal, I’m just skeptical that, in this particular case, the immigrants were in fact brighter than those who stayed.”

      I appreciate your comment, but I am no more interested in getting into a pedantic debate about IQ statistics than I am in a pedantic debate about GDP statistics. I tried to frame this issue without invoking either too heavily, but it may be unavoidable.

      I am not a militant empiricist in the British sense. GDP especially and IQ as well are prone to fluctuate wildly depending on who is determining what counts as GDP and what counts as IQ, and going through the methodologies of countless GDP/IQ stats studies is a Sisyphean task I am not interested in tackling, especially since there are so many other people doing it already who have mostly come up with hands empty when it comes to practical solutions or better models of the world. Using your two eyes and common sense is a lost art in this area.

      For example, here are just a few problems with the points about stats you brought up that might make them totally useless for analysis:

      1. US IQ stats almost certainly include “certain demographic groups” that skew the result wildly. Probably many other European IQ stats do too, since Europe has many “certain demographic groups.” Even within the US and European countries there ought to be significant IQ differences between different white ethnic groups. Trying to fit these broad generalized collections of IQ stats with common sense notions of how the world works is more likely to confuse you than help you unless you’re trying to disprove something stupidly obvious like racial differences in intelligence — but if you’re an honest person (i.e. not a left-wing liberal or other cuck-type), you didn’t need IQ studies to figure that out, and neither did anybody pre-1950!

      2. Finland’s lower IQ. Does this make sense? Not to me. Finland and Finns strike me as more highly-functioning than Spain or Hungary. Could “certain demographic groups” be causing trouble again? Or is IQ failing to help us explain something here? Do Finns have lower IQs but some other quality that makes them more intelligent and more high-functioning? If so, then we should stop using IQ stats because their explanatory power would be demonstrably limited. But how can we know? I’m not trying to get hired as an IQ scientist.

      3. Growth vs. total GDP. GDP stats are barely correlated to reality and AFAICT more-or-less subject to the whims of useless EU bureaucrats. Perhaps it was my mistake invoking GDP stats as a proxy. On the other hand, EE states are still well below Germany, etc. when it comes to GDP per capita, and if they converge it may have more to do with Western European immigration retardation than with Eastern European human capital.

      In my view, the result is that the common sense position to analyzing this problem would be to disregard GDP and IQ stats and simply “think from scratch” based on common observation and reason. Those observations and that reason is outlined in the article above, though perhaps I shouldn’t have even mentioned the stats, or just said that from the get-go.

      Suffice it to say that if we agree on the dynamic of the international “IQ” (or let’s just say, like I would prefer, “human capital,” since IQ doesn’t encapsulate everything that might make someone productive, virtuous and civilized) shredder, then we’re on the same page — and I happen to think that shredding dynamic is the most important thing to identify, and it is true regardless of whether you analyze it in terms of IQ, GDP, common observation, bourgeoisie values, etc.

  4. The emigration of a developing nation’s best cognitive elements does indeed ensure that its abilities to reform and prosper economically are hindered. Yuray is therefore quite correct in pointing out the concept of the “brain drain.” But the perspective he provides is basically cherry picked theorizing and the image the article paints is a distortion of reality.

    Firstly, Europeans who were formally under the rule of the Eastern Commissar often ridicule the educational infantelisation of the West. Generally speaking, the IQ of many Balkan and Eastern European nations may be lower than that of West, but genetic factors do not have to play even a dominant role in the intelligence disparity, as is suggested by the 17 point IQ difference between West and East Germans when that nation was still artificially divided by the occupying powers [ref].

    Consider also the place of the Polish IQ, which was at 106 in 1979. That was 6 points above the continental median of the era, and one single IQ point below Germany and the Netherlands [ref]. The IQ dropped dramatically in the years leading up to 1989, decreasing to 92 points, but that was before the mass exodus of its “best and brightest” after it joined Schengen and the EU [ref].*

    So what is the state of Poland today, after many of its most dynamic and educated young – numbering in the hundreds of thousands – moved to the UK, Ireland, Norway and further abroad?

    The country was hardly affected by the Global Financial Crisis. According to the IBT it “experienced 4.8 percent, 1.7 percent, 3.8 percent and 4.4 percent growth in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively” at a time when “the EU as a whole experienced 0.8 percent, negative 4 percent, 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent growth in the same years” [ref]. Brookings: “Poland’s economy is a quarter larger than at the onset of the crisis, while the economy of the EU as a whole grew by only 0.7 percent” [ref]. This has been largely credited to Poland’s refusal to join the Eurozone [ref].

    It is therefore a little silly to state that “there is data on the GDP of Poland, however, and it’s not as flattering as the data about neighboring Germany’s GDP.” Not flattering? When one analyses economic (or any) data, its the pattern, the trend that counts. Not the single dot on a graph, but where it is moving. Germany may be a powerhouse of economic activity in comparison to even its Western neighbours, but if you look at it dynamically, it is quite clearly a country in its twilight: no country which elects a new people the way it is doing now is capable of any future greatness, political or economic.

    Poland, on the other hand, promises to be the South Korea of Europe in the next ten years. Don’t be put off by its downgrading by Standard & Poor – that was merely a globalist F-U to Warsaw as a result of the wrong party winning their elections (and in a landslide) [ref1; ref2].

    While it is true that the country has received substantial EU investment for modernisation programmes, so too have its former-Eastern-bloc neighbours, who have not performed as well. Moreover, many Poles complain that EU regulations have actually destroyed local industry and retarded the development of an independent agricultural sector. Likewise, many foreign businesses (mostly German) were absolved from any taxation liability by the former Polish globalist government. Whether EU integration has been a net benefit or cost to the country is debatable.

    Lastly, and perhaps not least important of all – this article erroneously groups Balkan and Central Europeans as “Eastern Europeans”… really, not even the pathologically Teutonophile quarters of the alt-right does this anymore.

    *A study by Prof. Lynn, as reported in the Mail on Sunday in 2006, ranked Poland’s IQ as back at 106 [Ref]. It is uncertain whether this means that it dropped from 104 in 1979 to 92 in 1989, and then rose to 106 in 2006. I am assuming that is the case but am willing to be corrected by readers with more complete information. In any event, the country’s recent dynamism, as well as electoral trends, should speak for itself.

    1. Your entire argument hinges on the accuracy of all of these wildly fluctuating estimates of the national IQ of Poland made over the past few decades, yet for some reason you fail to consider whether the reason for that fluctuation is the fact maybe the estimates themselves were wrong.

      1. Mark Yuray’s entire argument hinges on exactly the same kind of assumptions (about IQ, genetics and its connection to economic prosperity) yet for some reason you seem not to notice that.

        … on the other hand, mine does not. My critique is based on a dynamic observation of the economic performance of Poland vs, eg, Germany; Yuray’s was a static and simplistic snapshot. Yet I have chosen not to question the accuracy of his data – any fool can do that – but to demonstrate how his thesis is illogical. I have done this to challenge that thesis, not to prove the accuracy of IQ studies.

        Indeed, if you read my reply more carefully, you will see that the economic performance of Poland does not confirm Yuray’s predictions. If Yuray maintains that Poland is low IQ, and you give the veracity of his data a pass, then Yuray’s theory that IQ and economic performance are positively correlated is significantly discredited.

    2. Very interesting and well sourced comment. I still have a hard time believing that Poland will become as strong as you predict, but I certainly hope so.

    3. See this comment of mine above: http://www.socialmatter.net/2016/05/03/eastern-european-underperformance-and-the-ministry-of-repatriation/#comment-29077

      “Mark Yuray’s entire argument hinges on exactly the same kind of assumptions (about IQ, genetics and its connection to economic prosperity) yet for some reason you seem not to notice that.”

      No, this is incorrect, although perhaps I was not aggressively clear enough about that.

      What I wrote was “IQ, work ethic, good ideas, virtue, entrepreneurship, creativity and so forth” and “aristocratic and high-functioning” and “high human capital.” IQ is a part of this, but not all of it, and likely not even a majority or plurality of the effects.

      My resulting analysis is perhaps a bit more nebulous conceptually, but I think it more accurately describes the real dynamic that is occurring than if you narrowly clung to IQ/GDP statistics, which have many problems of their own.

      “The country was hardly affected by the Global Financial Crisis. According to the IBT it “experienced 4.8 percent, 1.7 percent, 3.8 percent and 4.4 percent growth in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively” at a time when “the EU as a whole experienced 0.8 percent, negative 4 percent, 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent growth in the same years” [ref]. Brookings: “Poland’s economy is a quarter larger than at the onset of the crisis, while the economy of the EU as a whole grew by only 0.7 percent” [ref]. This has been largely credited to Poland’s refusal to join the Eurozone [ref].”

      That’s all well and good, but how are we supposed to know that Poland’s economy wouldn’t have been 50% or 75% or 100% larger if it didn’t have such high out-flow of Poles? It was playing catch-up already because of communism.

      “It is therefore a little silly to state that “there is data on the GDP of Poland, however, and it’s not as flattering as the data about neighboring Germany’s GDP.” Not flattering? When one analyses economic (or any) data, its the pattern, the trend that counts.”

      The point is that the average German is more productive and probably higher in human capital than the average Pole. Again, perhaps I was misdirecting the reader a bit by referencing GDP (which is unnecessary to make the point, I admit), but that is the point. Not that the trends are good for Germany — obviously not.

      “Poland, on the other hand, promises to be the South Korea of Europe in the next ten years.”

      This will have more to do with the fact that Poland’s European competition is committing demographic suicide, and that Poland will then probably receive a large infusion of human capital from the West as people flee diversity. That would buttress my argument here, not contradict it.

      “Lastly, and perhaps not least important of all – this article erroneously groups Balkan and Central Europeans as “Eastern Europeans”… really, not even the pathologically Teutonophile quarters of the alt-right does this anymore.”

      Oh, please. The West/East distinction is pretty clear. You can analyze Croatia, Poland and Russia together as “Eastern European” because all three are relatively under-performing compared to the West, all three have significant histories of emigration (including recent) and all three send a lot of high-functioning natives to the West, oftentimes permanently. You can be more specific too, and split them into Central/East/Balkan, or whatever other categories you want — but I’m writing a short article here, not a book.

      1. “That’s all well and good, but how are we supposed to know that Poland’s economy wouldn’t have been 50% or 75% or 100% larger if it didn’t have such high out-flow of Poles? It was playing catch-up already because of communism.”

        That’s a fair point. And true, Germany and the UK had a head start with no-communism and post War reconstruction financing; however they both now have a larger share of Poland’s high IQ workers, which according to your model should have made them even more economically dynamic. However, it hasn’t. Of course, this is largely because of other factors, such as encroaching para-socialism in the form of the welfare state, the Zombie Invasion and resulting indigenous-flight. Obviously, this is a more complex matrix of factors, and IQ distribution plays but one role only. Nevertheless, as Irving pointed out, reliance on the IQ data itself may be problematic – its accuracy is always questioned.

        Moreover, I think it flawed to believe that most or even a significant portion of Poland’s economic rise has anything at all to do with Western Europe’s economic or demographic fall. Poland’s economic rise has occurred during its “brain drain” and certainly does not correlate in time with any influx of human capital from the West to the East. It has also suffered its own demographic depression. So yes, this does indeed contradict your argument. You don’t seem to be able to conceive the importance of when certain things start to happen, and as a result, you have all your causes and effects muddled up. Try thinking outside of the box, forget the IQ=wealth ideology for a moment and just look at what’s actually happening over time.

        Likewise, if for example Poland had exactly the same, matching industry, labour force etc as Germany over the same period of time, then I would agree that Poland’s economic success might be ascribed to Germany’s former clients turning to Poland as an alternative supplier of goods and services during this time. But that is obviously not the case. Your theory is a kind of economic relativism not grounded in anything materially observable, and it ignores the booming economy’s own independent efforts at growth and reform, as well as the fact that this boom occurred before factors that you suggest should cause or catalyse it.

        Note also: Western Europe has done a great deal to try and suck more wealth out of the Central European economies as it devours itself from within. Nothing from the West can be held responsible for Central Europe’s success. Kaczyński and Orbán are the only defences against further Berlin/Brussels lechery.

        “The point is that the average German is more productive and probably higher in human capital than the average Pole.”

        A curious statement. I wonder what metrics you are applying here, and how you came to this conclusion. Particularly as the “average Pole” has effectively rebuilt his country and refused to allow it to be dildoized, while the “average German” has – in the grand tradition of the well-disciplined – obediently allowed his posterity to be sold to the Kalifate. I know exactly what “human capital” I would invest in… but perhaps we should just agree to disagree on this one. Or perhaps we have different ways to measure value.

        “The West/East distinction is pretty clear. You can analyze Croatia, Poland and Russia together as ‘Eastern European’ …”

        “Clear” you say? My experience of Central and Balkan Europe has been that there are widely differing degrees of worker ethic (unsurprisingly I found service employees in southern Poland and central Hungary to be more “Anglo” in their attitudes to the customer than their counterparts in Germany and Austria – even some parts of the UK itself). Likewise, Poland and Hungary are positively Western when it comes to corporate initiative – driving through their regional capitals is enough to see the stark difference with, say, Bratislava and Belgrade. Compared to Slovakia or Serbia, they are on a vastly different level.

        Moreover, cultural factors that are influenced by an inherited religious worldview create distinctions that can be clearly seen running between and through many of these nations. The members of the Visegrád Group, along with Croatia (and Hercegbosna) are obviously in the West – try telling them otherwise (although I would advise against it). Belarus and Russia, well, aren’t (also, obviously). I haven’t been to Romania, yet, but I suspect that they wouldn’t be too happy about being seen as a pea in the same pod as, say, Macedonia or Belarus. No, this lumping them all together smacks of a kind of mindless sovietisation, or deracinated EUism. I reject both, and so do they.

        1. Poland’s economic rise might have been 0.5x, 0.75x, hell, 2x, or 5x greater or quicker if it wasn’t suffering from brain drain. Its rise can be attributed entirely to low-hanging fruit from discarding communism and receiving EU funds. Therefore it does not contradict my argument. You have correctly identified the Zombie Invasion, welfare state and native flight as the causes for a lack of greater growth and dynamism from Western European countries — this shredder is precisely the evil being I’m trying to illustrate.

          “Note also: Western Europe has done a great deal to try and suck more wealth out of the Central European economies as it devours itself from within.”

          Yes, I agree, that is my point. That is the international shredder. But my point does not require that Eastern European countries be hemorrhaging people and dollars, only that they be losing some, or growing at a theoretically slower rate (or producing less or lower-quality whatever) than theoretically possible without the brain drain.

          “A curious statement….”

          You should read my comments above. What is human capital? Hard to delineate perfectly, but some combination of IQ, virtue, creativity, work ethic, entrepreneurship, risk-taking, vision, leadership, discipline, etc. In general my sense is that Germans out-do Poles when it comes to this.

          Your points about dildoized Germans are rhetorically true, but the average German is operating in a very different social environment and under a very different political system from the one in Poland, so the point is moot. It is not the average German per se who has allowed his nation to be dildoized, it is the German government, which is de facto the American government, which was installed there after the bloodiest war in history, and was itself installed and legitimized by numerous illegitimate and evil wars. Suppose you installed NRx style monarchies in both Poland and Germany tomorrow — which native population would produce a more glorious civilization in 50 years? Based on history, the Germans — but, as my article argues, it would not be epically and insurmountably glorious, but just more glorious.

          ““Clear” you say?…”

          I outlined why I analyzed them the same way. I don’t disagree with any of your other points, but they are irrelevant to why I analyzed them together. In fact, I could be even more broad than “Eastern Europe” and just say “non-North-Western-Europe” since Spain, Portugal and Italy also send a lot of talented natives abroad — they just don’t have as much of an inferiority complex as Eastern European countries, and that inferiority complex is what I was addressing, and it is common to Croatia, Poland, Russia, Romania, Slovakia, Serbia and every other country that could conceivably be part of “Eastern Europe” — probably in large part due to Sovietization, but that doesn’t discredit anything — they were Sovietized for 50+ years!

  5. As someone with some experience of Croatia, both of the Country and the Diaspora, I don’t feel that the above analysis does justice to the topic. And I think the problems of Croatia are not really applicable to that of Poland. If I get some time I hope to give you a full and considered reply but in essence the under-performance of Croatia is not due to low IQ, but it’s due to a far more insidious problem which is probably best described as de-bourgeois-isation.

    The values held by the managerial class in Croatia, with a few exceptions, are those which would not be tolerated in Western Countries, especially with regard to issues like punctuality, honesty, nepotism and responsibility. Croatia, which appeared to be developing the beginnings of a decent middle class by the late 19th Century had it destroyed economically by the “Orthodox” governance of the country between the wars, and physically, by the communist takeover of the country post WW2. The net result being that the bourgeois values that a managerial class needs to posses in order to achieve first world economic status were destroyed.

    The country, simply does not posses a bourgeois class, in the traditional Western sense. Rather, they have a prole-ish managerial class that is the product of the historical development of the country. It think a lot of the Eastern European underperformance in countries such as Poland, Hungary and Slovakia suffer from this problem.

    Here in Australia, where the emigre community was allowed to flourish without persecution it can be divided into two groups, the “Church” group and the “Soccer” group, with the sociodemographic outcomes being widely divergent. In the groups that were “Church” focused and bourgeois in aspiration, a disproportionately high number became professionally successful. In my own small circle–descended from “Low IQ” peasant farmers–I can count six doctors, at least eight engineers, two accountants, two lawyers, an economist, four high level IT professionals, a pharmacist and an optometrist. Amongst the “soccer” crowd the record is not so impressive.

    There seems to be this unproven assertion that many of the emigre’s were of higher IQ by virtue of immigration, but it’s my understanding that there are not scientific studies which back up that claim. A study of the IQ of immigrants in the Danish Army showed that the IQ’s tended to match the country of origin.

    Furthermore, after unification, East German military recruits were found to have lower IQ’s than their West German Genetic brethren, this gap closed over the past twenty years–West Germans governing– and now there is no difference.

    As our IQ fetishists know, IQ is a measure of both fluid and crystalline intelligence. In other words, genetics and values matter, and to determine the genetic economic potential of any group of people, you need to control for environment. Fortunately, the U.S. gov provides data on the economic performance of individuals by ethnicity.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ethnic_groups_in_the_United_States_by_household_income

    Communism, and its lingering effects i.e. Ostalgia, have gutted the economic potential of Eastern Europe. Should the former Hapsburg countries be able to engineer a bourgeois revival–and that’s a big if–I think the spectacle, not only in economic but cultural terms, would stun the world.

    1. Thanks for your comment. I would be interested in reading a longer article on the topic from you.

      You misread my position on IQ. See my two long comments above. IQ =/= human capital. Human capital = some combination of IQ, work ethic, virtue, creativity, risk-taking, vision, leadership, values, etc. With that in mind, perhaps you can see that your comment fits in nicely with my piece — low IQ peasants with Church-going and virtuous norms are going to prosper, and those people can be included in the “best 20%” of Croats that left Croatia.

      I have not met many “Soccer” emigrants, but they sound a lot like Croatian natives. Your “Church” emigrants sound a lot like all the emigrants I know. That would support my thesis that the productive “Church” people are emigrating and the unproductive “Soccer” people are staying. I’m sure some “Soccer” people emigrated too, but I’m advancing the position that more “Church” people left, and that those are the 20% Pareto best who the country needs most. It has only partially to do with IQ.

    2. Absolutely spot on. I would add only that the likelihood of recreating a Habsburg’esque Central European “bloc” would be aggressively stifled by the existing “Big Boys”. They do not want, under any terms, a potential rival to their continental hegemony. The greatest threat to any such revival would almost certainly come from Paris, Berlin and Moscow, acting either individually or in concert. Evidence of this can be seen by observing the treatment of the democratically elected Eurosceptics of Warsaw and Budapest by the German owned media.

  6. It’s not accurate to call the region Eastern Europe, much of it is Central Europe, and it is not a mere nitpick nor some kind of a vague prestige matter, but it is about the fact the cultural divide between the Catholic, pro-German and Orthodox, pro-Russian cultures there is fairly big: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitteleuropa#Mitteleuropean_culture

    As far as I can tell, the reasons the high-IQ emigrate are lacking the proper tools to do their jobs (like lab equipment), a culture of envy and sabotage-the-succesful, low salaries that require doing something illegal in order to live normally, poor quality hospitals and schools. I don’t think this can be fixed any time soon, it is a chicken and egg problem, only smart people can generate wealth, but smart people want to live in an already wealthy place where they are given the necessary tools and are paid well. The only thing a poor country can do to attract an elite is to provide them with cheap labor – it has to be somewhere in the equation. If these governments could cut blue collar wages somehow, so that these elites could return and start manufacturing businesses that export goods, that could possibly work.

    This sounds strange, but this is really the pattern of human migrations. Consider England and America. Those who went on to the Frontier to live a simple life were not of the elite. The elite stayed in London. As trade with the Indians, like fur, was growing, some of the elite went over and traded with them but it was all based on the Indians labor being very cheap. Once New York started to get masses of immigrants and cheap labor, the elite went there and started manufacturing businesses. The elite wants leverage for their skills, and that is either an already rich environment with good tech and tools, or armies of cheap labor to command, or perhaps someone else may command the cheap labor and the trade with it, but in the absence of a rich and developed society, cheap labor must be part of the picture. The only thing these countries can offer to their expats is the dream that going back you can stop being an employee and start a manufacturing business that is internationally competitive because wages are low.

    1. Yes, much of it is still Mitteleuropa. But the communist experience gutted the cultures of these nations.

      low salaries that require doing something illegal in order to live normally,

      Had a discussion with a immigrant about this yesterday. Most of them want to be honest but the system incentivizes dishonesty, some of them leave because they don’t like what it does to their characters.

  7. […] Yuray is back in his normal Tuesday slot with Eastern European Underperformance And The Ministry Of Repatriation. “Brain Drain” is, of course, alive and well, but since it’s implicitly racist to […]

  8. No famous Poles comes to your mind? Do descendants of Polish americans like Steve Wozniak count (since you mentioned Steve Jobs, whose main achievement seems to be markeint Wozniak’s invention :D) ?

    Seriously, going by breeder equation, brain drain is still not enough to permenently lower Polish IQ. It will have to last at last few generation more. As for 106-92 differing IQ figures, actually 106 figure was for study done with urban Poles, which definetely infalted the scores a lot. I would say that current IQ level is 97-99 (in greenwich iq, i.e. white english = 100).

    However, there is a lot which may impede the growth, first of all, a class of parasites (leftovers of communists), corruption (though it is going steadily down from ultrahigh levels in 90s), low social capital (though it is going steadily up). I would say currently Polish GDP and living standards do no reflect fully our genetic potential. At the same time, I would concur that even at our best, our GDP probably would be still lower from western countries if they would be still white.
    Historically, we have better economy than Portugal and Greece, and we are already catching up (in PPP already surpassed Greece, in real value will do that in few years).

    However, western countries are losing social capital. Warsaw currently have higher standard of living than Vienna (in purchase power terms) not because Warsaw is more wealthy, but because Vienna now includes number of shitty immigrant ghettoes drawing averages down, while Warsaw is almost 100% Polish. And that’s all that matters. Poland of the future maybe won’t be as crime-free, corruption-free and wealthy society as Sweden of the past in its peak, but – if we avoid demographic catastrophe, since this is a real danger, and if we manage to avoid immigrant waves – Poland of the future might be more crime-free, corruption-free and wealthier than Sweden of the future.

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