Comments on: Bringing Freedom and Hypocrisy to Yemen

By: ryan

ryan — Wed, 08 Apr 2015 14:53:41 +0000

I doubt the Saudis are stupid enough to actually invade. But if they do the Iranians will be singing praises to Allah from the rooftops, as they’d get to bleed the Saudis in a fight with one of their proxies.

By: Mitchell Laurel

Mitchell Laurel — Tue, 07 Apr 2015 16:21:20 +0000

Amen to that. Amen. We’ll see how this all plays out. It may lead to a real invasion by the Saudis, finally giving those wahhabis a taste of the Iraq war they spurred on.

Time will tell. I highly doubt the Houthis will back down at this stage though.

By: ryan

ryan — Mon, 06 Apr 2015 22:35:59 +0000

It’s at once that cut and dry but also not that cut and dry. So for example Iran has deployed its navy in the Gulf of Aden to stop piracy and protect shipping routes.

http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2014/11/04/384763/Iran-Navy-sends-fleet-to-Gulf-of-Aden-

Of course they are actually supplying arms and at least advisers if not soldiers to the Houthi militia.

The Saudi/American ally is the former vice president now president Hadi who was supposed to negotiate a federalization of Yemen so each of the ethnic factions could have a lot of local autonomy.

The Houthi basically demanded way too much in the negotiations. They wanted to have sole authority to appoint key members of the Sana government. They basically wanted to eat their cake and have it too, get to choose who would make up the government, but not have any real responsibility for seeing that the country is well governed.

This led to renewed fighting this year, which Al Queda affiliated groups have taken advantage of by pushing their rebellion in the southeast.

The purpose of the bombing campaigns is to weaken and bleed the Houthis enough to bring them back to the negotiating table with a more reasonable set of demands, hopefully leading to an agreement which will allow Sana to take the fight back to Al Queda. From an American perspective it is a desperate policy, which, if it works, will be a good thing.

If I had to sum up the post-911 middle east in one sentence, it would be:

Iran is much better at fighting proxy wars than the United States and Saudi Arabia.

By: Mitchell Laurel

Mitchell Laurel — Fri, 03 Apr 2015 03:38:13 +0000

Indeed, this is not a front that the Americans and Saudis wanted to go hot, but here we are. Notably Al Qaeda in Yemen is a useful ally for the Saudis and Americans as long as the deals are kept out of sight. They deal expertly with them in Iraq, and the Wahhabi ideology, though of different strains for each, remains a binding force.

Do remember that the Saudis haven’t been bombing Al Qaeda in the East of the country and that’s not a coincidence.

By: Mark Citadel

Mark Citadel — Thu, 02 Apr 2015 18:38:01 +0000

What’s more, I just don’t see how Saudi Arabia really wins this. The Houthi’s are the only well organized military force in Yemen, the army there has simply joined them or melted away. The next most organized group after the Houthis are Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Saudi Arabia would actually have to launch a full ground invasion, sparking off a massive, bloody war in which Shi’ite children getting killed is going to enrage Iran and Hezbollah to action.

Talk about a tinderbox.

By: Mitchell Laurel

Mitchell Laurel — Thu, 02 Apr 2015 15:14:04 +0000

A sensible divide? Sure, maybe. I don’t agree that diversity is forever a failure. Every empire in history has been multiethnic. It certainly requires more care an attention, and single ethnicity states definitely have advantages, but its not at all a dealbreaker. for me.

I share your sense of anticipation. As I’ve posted on my blog, it feels like everything is speeding towards a dramatic conclusion of some kind or another.

By: Mark Citadel

Mark Citadel — Thu, 02 Apr 2015 13:54:59 +0000

Very good analysis of the situation, and it bears saying that Saudi Arabia is actually driving the Houthi rebels into the arms of Iran much faster than would happen otherwise. Who else are they to turn to when they are being aerially bombarded with American made weapons?

“But foreigner domination of the country for the last century has made them, and kept them, as a third world hell hole that produces nothing but oil and stays poor.”

While foreign domination has certainly hurt Yemen, its greater problem is that it is essentially another made-up nation invented whole cloth without any consideration of its people, who are perhaps some of the most tribal in the entire Middle East. North and South Yemen was actually a pretty sensible divide in this case. Diversity is forever a failure.

I can’t help but get the sense that something ‘big’ is going to happen in the Middle East very soon… its like the ticking of a clock in the back of my mind.