Ongoing urbanization means further relocation of country folk: more proles means more city dwellers inclined toward things like “anti-Japanese and pro-expansionist nationalism.”

Maybe its too early to tell. I don’t know.

In a kind of parallel, there are plenty of struggling western-influenced artists in India and China. But few artist-run venues. Upper caste owners tend to control the galleries. Especially India. A very sharp divide. Maybe in China there’s there’s a bit more of a leveling.

The same sort of white people (urban, liberal) who protest police would likely be easily manipulated into voting for increased police scope and power to counter threats associated with lower class whites. It’s actually similar to what the SPLC and similar groups already do. In a society where social trust is low and the only common institution is the state, the police will inevitably be viewed as sympathizing with certain groups over others and be distrusted by huge swathes of the population. Otherwise necessary changes in police methods to deal with this sort of society (high militarization, faster trigger fingers) serve to reinforce this polarization.

I’m skeptical of the view that some people on the right and left have that the US is in a stage of such total decline that it will more or less disappear in the coming years. Unlike the USSR, the US is the worlds biggest hub of trade and investment. It’s much more likely that the average citizen will just end up interacting less and less with USG entities. And hey, that was the case for the first half or more of American history anyway. And yes, it will look far more like the ROW.

The biggest problem with the USA and a powerful central government is that the elites hate their own people. Well, the white ones anyway. Han chinese are very protective and strongly identify with other Han, which are well over 90% of the population.

And, of course, whites are the most productive. And white middle class culture created the trust necessary for prosperity and innovation to flourish. Can you have a middle class in a police state? China blocks many websites, probably this one. Scapegoating the wrong whites as racist, sexist, homophobic, islamophobic, hater, bigot, etc., is creating a kind of police state mentality. Feedback loops are constricting, similar to losing face in China.

The inefficiency caused by lowered trust and disparate impact hiring in government and private business could seriously undermine the longterm economy. Right now, 58% of state college students are women, only 42% are men. There is no concern from the left about glass ceilings or inequality here! The next bubble could very well be student loans.

Still, the US could stumble along for some time. China, like the Rest of the World (outside Euroland) is even more screwed up. But the West, in particular the USA, is looking more like the ROW.

A rough gauge to use is the ratio of public to private golf courses in a society. With higher public course ratios you will see a healthier middle class and a higher trust culture. Also, Ebay and online trading. Vitually non-existent in low-trust cultures such as China and India.

Cheers.