I think the parallel with 1968’s France is not too strong. The economical context and the mindset of the protesters are largely similar. There’s good reason to think, however, that Hong Kong is better equiped to resist the trend, if only because unlike the French, most of the Chinese here have experienced what Communism really is, and those who have not still live with the constant reality of it right across the border. On a broader scale, it is getting noticed that the Western democracies can no longer display the luster they had in the past, their structural problems are getting too obvious to anyone paying attention. No wonder why the protests are filled with young students and the most radical, i.e utopists, members of the local Democratic Party.

It is worth noting that the said Democratic Party has been quite divided all along. A lot of much more reasonable propositions to improve the Chief Executive nomination process have been issued by various moderate members, only to be rejected by the radical wing. The reason why the negotiations have failed is that Occupy Central leaders and the politicians who support them absolutely refuse to consider anything else than a full transfer of the nomination process to civil society – an unrealistic claim, from any point of view. Beijing just can’t afford to waive its control of Hong Kong’s executive authority, in a region where more than 80% of the population would return under Great Britain authority had they the choice, as polls regularly show.

However, Beijing has played a dangerous game in letting the situation rot for a couple of months. It has been quite successful in turning the population against the protesters, as their blockade really is a nuisance in such a small city. The impact in traffic jam and especially retail sales will not be forgotten any time soon by the local population. But in failing to address the situation as any political power with real authority would have, that is, to remove the protesters after a couple of days – can you imagine London or New York paralyzed like that for two months? – Beijing authorities have appeared as they really are: weak. The risk of another Tiananmen was too high for them. Meanwhile, the students are enjoying the support of liberal medias in the western world, and proudly display the front pages of magazines such as TIME amid the barricades.

The 1968 events in France occurred at a time when de Gaulle’s leadership and authority were starting to fade, paving the way to half a century of decline for the country. Hong Kong currently suffers from the same lack of consistent authority, and it becomes especially acute when you compare it to the other major business hub in the region, Singapore, which benefits from a strong leadership – and an ever-increasing attractiveness. There are several major threats on Hong Kong’s prosperity, and Occupy Central certainly is the least of them – it may rather be viewed as a symptom.

Hong Kong is a very oligopolistic market, almost nowhere else in the world is the concentration degree in the big industries as high as here. A lot of markets here are even just duopolies (like supermarkets and drugstores), and in an environment in which compliance and financial requirements are growing beyond measure, it is simply forbidding access to newcomers. As a result, a large part of the economy is in the hands of the a few groups, for which incentives to adjust to the demands of the market are low. Quite a few voices have pointed out that the tycoons’ empires should be a much more urgent concern for the protesters than Beijing – rather truthfully if you ask me.

More importantly, there is a parameter that plays a critical role in the evolution of Hong Kong economy: it is that the rule of law applies in Hong Kong, whereas in China it does not. It creates a huge incentive for any mainland Chinese to invest in Hong Kong, as their assets are protected from an arbitrary seizure here. The direct result is a lot of people injecting money in the Hong Kong economy well above the market value, which sends the overall cost of living in Hong Kong through the roof. It plays no small role in the hostility of Hong Kong people towards Chinese mainlanders, and the whole protestation movement has to be replaced in this context as well.

Hong Kong has an hybrid status, but it is a Chinese city. In 2047, Beijing will no longer be bound to maintain the “one country, two systems” scheme. The number of expatriates is dramatically shrinking compared to the number of Chinese people. The overall level of English is declining. Short of the appropriate reforms, it could very well happen that three decades down the road, when Beijing will reconsider the status of Hong Kong, the latter could be nothing more than an offshore haven for rich Chinese, that will no longer justify its existence as an international, law-protected business hub as it once was.
This is a real risk. This is why Occupy Central, beyond its naive revendications of universal suffrage – and its less naive claims to entitlements policies – also is a symptom of an unrest that is most likely not going to dissipate with the eventual removal of the tents on Harcourt Road.

There would be a lot more to say on the matter but I’ve been too long already, so thanks again for this article and this website.